Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 23.209528 25.319533 27.615584 30.314032 33.417166 36.896528 41.124903
2025-08-17 19.851946 22.701069 26.030179 30.263753 35.588182 42.181894 51.163711
2025-08-24 17.460236 20.663760 24.610802 29.947660 37.168392 46.910583 61.653383
2025-08-31 15.741510 19.131817 23.487033 29.677382 38.587664 51.560351 73.242435
2025-09-07 14.420217 17.904607 22.535480 29.398789 39.821653 56.076579 85.952703
2025-09-14 13.405927 16.949733 21.798939 29.254743 41.139766 60.912139 100.850353
2025-09-21 12.502696 16.044913 21.010625 28.886687 41.981615 65.070847 116.079566
2025-09-28 12.148897 15.864372 21.223665 30.048041 45.503536 74.866187 148.167187
2025-10-05 11.497263 15.193255 20.630515 29.822183 46.537548 80.119804 172.545947
2025-10-12 10.953026 14.634177 20.149816 29.708914 47.734413 86.022083 202.818069
2025-10-19 10.579806 14.299707 19.982501 30.097886 49.946217 94.853048 250.004185
2025-10-26 10.128185 13.812563 19.526988 29.916254 50.968267 101.178082 295.070244
2025-11-02 9.691605 13.330613 19.057228 29.684737 51.914925 107.860014 351.706202
2025-11-09 9.343248 12.966308 18.755177 29.734715 53.503227 117.010701 437.217661
2025-11-16 8.968590 12.537664 18.312332 29.466020 54.326853 124.337811 529.829986
2025-11-23 8.628793 12.145497 17.903062 29.217762 55.159074 132.135599 649.993218
2025-11-30 8.313430 11.775641 17.506313 28.951699 55.904697 140.076486 804.413380
2025-12-07 8.041912 11.463224 17.188830 28.813349 56.954376 149.736929 1032.692711
2025-12-14 7.757381 11.114978 16.784985 28.454369 57.367564 157.278944 1295.041310
2025-12-21 7.704507 11.150173 17.072071 29.590534 62.086031 185.947634 2388.480920
2025-12-28 7.469491 10.864716 16.752152 29.369858 62.930966 197.892865 3435.998658
2026-01-04 7.263756 10.619921 16.492912 29.259163 64.091800 212.499496 5469.970151
2026-01-11 7.131813 10.495891 16.452130 29.639539 66.852039 238.475523 12668.548443